“One in every four people in Ireland is a foreigner”

I have noticed a large number of these claims circulating on social media in recent months asserts that “one in every four people living in Ireland is a foreigner”. It is often presented as a statement of fact, accompanied by references to official statistics and recent migration into the State. As the claim has gained traction, it has increasingly been treated as a settled description of Ireland’s population.

The arithmetic behind the claim usually begins with the most recent census. Census 2022 recorded a usually resident population of 5,149,139 people. Of these, approximately 631,000 were non-Irish citizens, meaning that at the time of the census about one in eight residents did not hold Irish citizenship. That figure is not disputed and is clearly set out in the Central Statistics Office data.

From there, commentators typically add all recorded immigration since the census. Official population and migration estimates show that approximately 416,100 people immigrated to Ireland between 2023 and 2025. Combining that post-census inflow with the 2022 non-Irish citizen figure produces a total of just over one million people, which is then presented as the current number of “foreigners” living in Ireland.

That combined figure is usually divided by a rounded estimate of the population , often described simply as “around five million”  producing ratios ranging from one in five to one in four. The calculation is straightforward, but it rests on a series of assumptions that do not hold once the data is examined more closely.

Ireland’s population has not remained static since the census. According to the latest estimates, the population stood at approximately 5.46 million in 2025, an increase of almost 280,000 people since 2022. Any calculation that continues to divide by the census population base necessarily inflates the resulting proportion.

More significantly, immigration figures capture only one side of population movement. Emigration remains substantial. Between 2023 and 2025, around 199,500 people left Ireland. Those leaving include Irish citizens and non-Irish citizens alike. There is no published breakdown assigning emigration by citizenship in headline CSO releases, but it is not accurate to assume that those departing are exclusively Irish nationals.

Immigration figures also include a group that is frequently overlooked in online calculations: returning Irish citizens. Tens of thousands of Irish nationals moved back to Ireland during the same period. These individuals are counted in immigration totals, but they are not non-nationals and should not be included in any count of “foreigners”.

Another element often omitted is naturalisation. Citizenship status is not fixed. Department of Justice figures show that at least 40,000 people were granted Irish citizenship between 2023 and 2025. While many of these individuals were born outside Ireland, they are no longer counted as non-Irish citizens and should not be included in non-national population totals.

Deaths also reduce the resident population each year, while births increase it. However, deaths by citizenship or place of birth are not published in headline statistical releases, meaning it is not possible to assign deaths precisely to Irish or non-Irish populations using publicly available data. Any attempt to do so would be speculative.

Taken together, these factors materially affect the headline ratios being circulated online. While it is not possible to calculate an exact current figure for non-Irish citizens without a new census, it is possible to illustrate how the arithmetic changes when the main omissions are addressed.

Illustrative adjustment using published figures

Step	Calculation
Non-Irish citizens (Census 2022)	631,224
Add immigration 2023–2025	+416,100
Subtract emigration 2023–2025	−199,500
Subtract naturalisation (minimum)	−40,000
Illustrative total	≈ 807,800

Using the estimated 2025 population of 5,458,600, this produces a proportion of about 14.8 per cent, or roughly one in seven people.

This figure should be understood as illustrative and conservative, not as a precise count. It assumes, for example, that all emigration reduces the non-Irish citizen population and that all immigration adds to its assumptions that, if anything, are likely to overstate rather than understate the non-Irish share.

Much of the confusion in public debate also stems from inconsistent use of terms such as foreigner, immigrant, non-national and foreign-born. Irish official statistics draw clear distinctions between citizenship and place of birth. A person born outside Ireland who later acquires Irish citizenship is foreign-born, but is not a non-Irish citizen. Claims that conflate these categories risk overstating the figures.

When the available data is read in full, the claim that one in every four people in Ireland is a foreigner does not stand up. While selective arithmetic can produce eye-catching ratios, it does not reflect the demographic picture once emigration, returning Irish citizens, naturalisation and population growth are taken into account. A more realistic reading of the figures places the proportion closer to one in seven.

Ireland 2025 , realistic population snapshot (based on official data)

Measure	Figure
Estimated total population (2025)	≈ 5,458,600
Estimated non-Irish citizens	≈ 807,800
Share of population	≈ 14.8%
Ratio form	≈ 1 in every 7 people

This article does not seek to assess whether that level is appropriate or sustainable, nor does it argue for or against any particular immigration policy. Its purpose is to establish what the official data shows and where commonly cited calculations fall short. A separate analysis will examine Ireland’s position in a wider European context and consider the policy questions that follow.